In all of the contests below, there are broadly national issues at stake, which is why they’re being watched. These are all races where the Republicans expect to either turn back some of the inroads that Democrats have made over the last few years, or at least staunch some of that bleeding. The real reason that I’m interested in them is that the narrative that the national Republican party and the “Blue Dog” Democrats are already trying to craft is one of a stunning rebuke to president Obama’s agenda. And, by that, they mean healthcare. Big republican wins in these contests will surely be sold by the party, by conservative Democrats, and by Joe Lieberman as the voters rejecting plans to address universal health care. In reality, these are all fairly regional races. Particularly in Virginia, Creigh Deeds is widely seen as being entirely out of his depth (i.e., a buffoon). Democrats have done a good enough job of stalling health care reform even with a popular mandate, and I'd happily say that they deserve a smackdown, but I won’t enjoy seeing the health care opposition given something to crow about.
Whether you be looney lefty, right-wing nutjob, neither of those or anywhere in between: make sure to get out and vote!
The first polls will close at 7 pm (EST) in Virginia. A win by Democratic state senator Creigh Deeds would be a rather stunning upset, so expect the governorship to go to state Attorney General Bob McDonnell pretty quickly.
Updated: McConnell wins in VA with what appears to be a sizable margin. Not unexpected.
Next: at 8:00 pm (EST), polls close in New Jersey, where the governorship is on the line. Incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine is up against Republican Chris Christie. This one’s a toss-up in terms of the polls, as I’m not sure either of the candidates is all that popular.
Also at 8:00 pm, a big one in Maine: a ballot initiative to overturn gay marriage in the state, much as “Prop 8” did in California one year ago. Maine will either be the first state to popularly accept marriage equality, or the second state to take away rights that have been granted by the legislature. It’s completely even in the polls, but I’ll choose to be optimistic. The Obama administration hasn't demonstrated any particular interest in equality issues, so a bummer here could well foreshadow further disappointments.
At 9:00 pm, the polls will close in New York. The NY-23 house race is the one people will be watching here. It’s being described as a bit of a battle for the soul of the Republican Party. The moderate Republican nominee Dede Scozzafava dropped out just this past weekend and endorsed her Democratic challenger Bill Owens. Opposing him is Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman. The feeling is that Scozzafava wasn’t sufficiently doctrinaire in her republicanism to win the party vote. This has been a Republican held seat, so the Democrats don’t really have anything to lose. It’s more that the race is seen as a bellweather of where the Republican party is headed. Hoffman is up in the polls, but the race is really too weird for anyone to predict.
Updated: In spite of a lotta love from Sarah Palin and Glenn Beck, Democrat Bill Owens wins here. First time since the Ulysses S. Grant administration that a Democrat has held this seat.
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